* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP062023 08/06/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 56 51 39 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 56 51 39 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 58 54 49 38 30 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 19 16 16 13 7 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 58 65 64 69 81 80 145 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 25.9 23.7 23.2 22.5 20.9 20.8 20.2 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 125 102 96 88 70 67 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 57 55 49 48 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 15 14 13 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 19 29 35 47 34 50 38 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 32 -9 -37 -40 -16 -1 0 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -22 -17 -22 -19 -17 -4 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 239 286 389 429 498 630 713 655 564 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.7 26.6 27.7 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 114.1 115.8 117.3 118.8 120.9 122.1 122.0 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 13 8 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. -0. -3. -11. -19. -28. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -9. -21. -32. -43. -52. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.3 112.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062023 EUGENE 08/06/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062023 EUGENE 08/06/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##