* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/07/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 113 110 105 100 98 97 92 88 84 82 78 79 77 74 V (KT) LAND 120 117 114 113 110 105 100 98 97 92 88 84 82 78 79 77 74 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 111 106 103 97 94 95 97 96 93 87 77 66 57 49 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 0 3 3 1 4 4 5 8 8 17 23 25 15 22 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 7 9 5 0 3 2 5 7 6 4 3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 254 205 237 17 360 289 328 308 317 293 267 249 229 262 280 277 255 SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.0 27.3 27.3 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.6 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 137 140 140 134 137 139 143 143 149 150 153 151 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 47 44 42 41 44 47 43 44 46 48 54 60 68 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 18 17 16 16 17 15 14 12 11 8 8 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 101 110 111 107 98 112 88 91 93 66 51 30 7 -15 -27 -37 -47 200 MB DIV 56 33 5 0 -8 1 -7 -14 3 -29 -12 0 -29 0 42 19 13 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -5 -6 -2 -2 5 5 9 4 8 7 11 6 10 1 4 LAND (KM) 1459 1297 1146 1020 918 761 791 985 1166 1355 1600 1869 2131 2403 2670 2797 2535 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.3 14.2 15.1 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.1 145.0 146.8 148.7 150.5 154.3 158.1 162.0 165.7 169.4 173.1 176.5 179.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 18 19 18 16 16 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 3 6 6 6 6 2 14 8 26 33 42 42 29 25 42 39 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. -33. -36. -37. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -12. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -10. -15. -20. -22. -23. -28. -32. -36. -38. -42. -41. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.7 143.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/07/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 940.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/07/23 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 99 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##