* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/07/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 111 109 103 99 97 92 88 85 81 77 75 77 75 73 V (KT) LAND 120 117 114 111 109 103 99 97 92 88 85 81 77 75 77 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 111 107 103 98 97 98 98 98 94 87 77 68 60 52 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 4 1 5 1 5 4 12 12 18 30 25 17 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 8 11 4 2 0 0 0 3 7 2 1 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 200 331 345 6 39 352 313 304 268 276 260 241 241 266 270 283 333 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.7 27.0 27.5 27.4 27.8 28.3 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.7 28.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 140 139 136 134 137 142 141 145 150 155 151 148 153 149 156 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -1.1 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 54 51 44 42 42 40 41 44 43 42 46 44 49 54 66 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 18 17 16 16 14 15 14 13 10 9 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 113 114 106 103 108 102 98 89 85 58 51 25 -1 -26 -43 -40 -34 200 MB DIV 54 24 -8 -20 -13 -5 -11 -17 -13 -30 9 -23 -15 28 38 -6 28 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -2 -2 -5 -1 5 6 4 8 8 8 9 7 13 8 -2 LAND (KM) 1279 1115 970 871 787 742 896 1083 1232 1494 1777 2040 2281 2551 2830 2624 2367 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.7 14.3 15.4 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.2 147.2 149.2 151.0 152.8 156.6 160.5 163.9 167.7 171.5 175.1 178.4 181.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 19 18 18 19 18 18 16 16 14 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 5 7 5 4 8 15 17 49 46 38 25 26 43 50 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -25. -29. -31. -33. -36. -37. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -10. -13. -12. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -17. -21. -23. -28. -32. -35. -39. -43. -45. -43. -45. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.6 145.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/07/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1037.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/07/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##