* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/07/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 108 106 103 100 99 99 95 91 88 84 80 78 79 80 77 V (KT) LAND 115 111 108 106 103 100 99 99 95 91 88 84 80 78 79 80 77 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 108 104 101 97 98 100 99 98 94 85 75 66 58 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 2 1 2 6 3 6 7 15 24 30 23 18 5 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 8 10 9 4 -4 1 0 1 6 2 6 1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 303 342 24 49 329 327 274 321 284 242 242 241 256 275 276 275 165 SST (C) 27.0 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 141 139 135 137 138 143 144 148 151 150 151 149 149 149 152 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 50 44 42 40 39 38 41 42 41 43 44 45 49 57 69 71 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 17 16 14 15 16 14 13 13 11 9 8 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 110 108 101 108 108 94 91 89 77 60 34 7 -13 -28 -33 -14 -19 200 MB DIV 26 2 -6 0 2 -9 -15 -19 -14 12 -8 -22 -7 37 51 37 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -1 -6 -6 3 4 8 6 9 2 9 3 5 8 7 3 LAND (KM) 1123 992 883 792 750 819 1037 1208 1409 1675 1966 2219 2424 2683 2747 2519 2393 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.6 13.2 14.0 14.9 15.9 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.3 149.2 151.1 153.0 155.0 158.8 162.7 166.3 170.0 173.8 177.4 180.4 182.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 17 14 13 15 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 8 5 3 24 7 23 41 41 39 27 24 38 37 49 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. -31. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 4. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -20. -24. -27. -31. -35. -37. -35. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.4 147.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/07/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1051.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.2% 5.9% 2.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.7% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/07/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##