* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/07/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 109 106 103 100 97 96 92 89 83 80 77 75 72 70 66 V (KT) LAND 115 111 109 106 103 100 97 96 92 89 83 80 77 75 72 70 66 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 106 101 98 96 98 100 99 97 93 85 76 68 60 52 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 2 4 3 3 9 4 7 8 15 26 29 24 25 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 9 7 7 1 -4 0 1 4 3 3 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 13 30 30 13 347 286 312 337 304 245 255 249 268 284 304 311 353 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 135 134 136 141 143 146 149 152 151 150 148 148 149 153 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 10 8 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 40 39 40 41 44 44 45 42 45 51 56 59 60 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 17 16 15 14 15 15 13 13 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 107 99 103 101 94 90 82 76 70 55 14 -7 -24 -38 -46 -56 -56 200 MB DIV 0 -1 2 -2 -5 -17 -17 -3 -22 -2 -2 -13 -27 22 -1 19 7 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -5 -7 0 4 3 7 7 7 4 7 0 3 -6 0 3 LAND (KM) 990 894 820 773 779 941 1139 1309 1540 1796 2061 2325 2558 2773 2756 2559 2375 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.3 15.6 16.6 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.3 151.2 153.0 154.9 156.8 160.8 164.5 168.2 171.8 175.3 178.7 181.7 184.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 19 19 19 18 18 18 17 16 14 12 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 6 3 5 8 16 24 51 42 30 25 29 41 38 47 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. -31. -33. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -23. -26. -32. -35. -38. -40. -43. -45. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.3 149.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/07/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1071.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/07/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##