* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/08/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 106 104 101 99 96 93 89 85 80 78 75 74 74 70 V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 106 104 101 99 96 93 89 85 80 78 75 74 74 70 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 106 102 99 97 97 97 96 94 87 80 71 64 56 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 5 4 4 4 4 5 11 15 27 23 24 17 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 7 5 3 0 2 4 4 4 6 -1 -3 -5 -2 -6 2 SHEAR DIR 41 342 340 335 348 294 330 260 283 269 250 258 267 272 280 270 17 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.6 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.8 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 133 138 138 142 143 150 151 149 151 149 148 153 151 147 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 39 40 44 44 44 46 45 46 51 58 64 69 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 16 15 15 15 16 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 98 106 105 99 84 93 87 68 61 35 9 -6 -27 -42 -37 -43 -50 200 MB DIV 5 14 -2 -26 -26 -13 -9 -20 6 3 -20 -23 3 12 16 -7 -24 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 4 5 9 7 10 5 14 6 6 -2 0 5 4 LAND (KM) 890 810 772 772 817 1015 1184 1385 1663 1941 2191 2465 2745 2683 2406 2238 2171 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.2 15.2 16.1 17.0 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.3 153.2 155.0 156.8 158.5 162.3 166.2 169.8 173.8 177.3 180.2 183.2 186.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 17 18 19 18 19 19 16 15 15 15 15 12 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 3 5 26 6 22 37 43 36 25 25 42 44 50 31 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -32. -33. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -26. -30. -35. -37. -40. -41. -41. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.1 151.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/08/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1077.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/08/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##