* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/08/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 110 108 106 102 101 98 94 88 83 79 79 76 73 71 N/A V (KT) LAND 115 113 110 108 106 102 101 98 94 88 83 79 79 76 73 71 N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 111 106 103 100 98 98 98 95 89 80 72 65 58 51 44 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 2 4 4 3 7 3 7 7 14 19 24 20 22 21 16 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 2 2 1 -1 4 3 7 6 9 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 294 324 312 317 297 320 319 301 242 256 248 265 281 295 300 313 N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.9 28.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 135 138 137 141 143 146 150 151 151 150 150 150 153 151 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 40 42 43 45 45 47 47 50 54 57 64 65 69 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 99 88 80 84 84 71 65 53 22 -2 -21 -47 -60 -61 -59 N/A 200 MB DIV 15 11 -9 -17 -20 -17 2 -17 -4 -5 -34 -14 6 14 32 14 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 4 3 3 7 5 6 7 10 1 3 -5 -5 2 N/A LAND (KM) 831 793 806 863 957 1147 1330 1575 1842 2101 2365 2639 2797 2545 2344 2187 N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.5 14.5 15.6 16.6 17.7 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.3 155.2 157.1 159.0 160.9 164.7 168.5 172.3 175.9 179.1 182.1 185.1 188.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 15 14 11 9 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 7 24 8 18 26 46 43 29 25 36 36 51 48 29 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -29. -32. -33. -33. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -14. -17. -21. -27. -32. -36. -36. -39. -42. -44. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.8 153.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/08/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1039.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/08/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##