* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/08/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 106 105 103 99 94 89 83 76 72 71 67 65 65 N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 106 105 103 99 94 89 83 76 72 71 67 65 65 N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 111 106 102 101 102 102 99 92 83 74 65 56 49 44 39 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 4 3 5 11 8 15 17 28 23 22 20 20 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 2 4 5 0 1 -4 -2 -6 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 288 347 15 36 8 329 282 284 271 267 265 270 292 302 305 5 N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 139 138 139 141 144 148 151 150 155 154 150 152 154 155 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -51.9 -51.9 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 39 43 43 45 45 45 44 47 52 57 61 63 65 64 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 13 14 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 77 63 74 77 81 72 60 40 11 -9 -23 -50 -48 -50 -44 N/A 200 MB DIV 25 14 -2 -21 -20 -2 -14 -4 -5 -15 -13 -12 5 25 4 -27 N/A 700-850 TADV -5 2 4 4 3 5 8 8 5 12 5 3 2 -4 -1 0 N/A LAND (KM) 826 846 918 1011 1132 1282 1471 1712 1951 2187 2441 2706 2712 2476 2325 2165 N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.7 15.0 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.2 157.2 159.2 161.1 163.0 166.6 170.3 174.0 177.3 180.2 183.0 185.8 188.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 19 19 18 18 18 18 16 15 14 15 13 10 7 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 9 28 16 14 24 46 48 39 32 30 48 44 55 53 48 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -26. -29. -32. -33. -33. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -16. -21. -26. -32. -39. -43. -44. -48. -50. -50. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.5 155.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/08/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1003.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.1% 3.7% 2.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/08/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##