* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/08/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 110 107 104 102 97 94 86 79 74 71 69 66 66 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 110 107 104 102 97 94 86 79 74 71 69 66 66 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 111 107 103 101 99 98 95 90 82 74 66 59 52 47 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 5 9 5 10 7 11 19 25 21 23 17 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 4 6 4 -3 -1 -6 -5 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 2 22 321 319 357 307 269 271 260 267 268 281 284 292 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.9 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 139 139 139 142 146 149 150 154 155 153 149 154 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 42 43 42 46 44 45 46 47 53 58 63 65 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 14 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 66 71 76 74 72 60 51 24 -4 -20 -43 -55 -52 -59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 10 -14 -28 -27 1 -14 16 -1 -46 -24 15 6 38 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 9 4 4 4 4 8 9 5 5 4 3 -1 -4 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 839 906 1009 1125 1227 1389 1593 1820 2055 2311 2576 2833 2629 2406 2202 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.2 13.0 14.2 15.3 16.4 17.4 18.2 18.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.1 159.1 161.0 163.0 164.9 168.6 172.1 175.5 178.5 181.5 184.4 187.1 189.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 17 18 17 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 28 17 14 20 27 52 50 36 31 38 45 52 52 44 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -32. -32. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -18. -21. -29. -36. -41. -44. -46. -49. -49. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.5 157.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/08/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 988.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/08/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##