* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/09/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 111 108 106 102 97 92 88 79 75 73 72 69 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 114 111 108 106 102 97 92 88 79 75 73 72 69 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 112 109 106 103 100 95 92 87 79 71 63 56 50 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 4 7 6 6 4 10 9 20 22 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 0 0 0 3 3 8 1 0 -3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 78 320 308 317 293 287 271 235 255 268 270 263 267 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.8 29.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 139 139 141 144 148 150 150 156 154 151 153 156 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 39 39 39 45 43 44 45 49 56 60 65 71 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 13 11 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 72 78 74 75 70 55 35 12 -14 -34 -42 -44 -37 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -14 -21 -24 -8 -10 9 4 -2 -22 0 15 27 12 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 3 4 6 5 9 9 8 -1 6 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 918 1001 1116 1207 1284 1471 1694 1941 2171 2441 2727 2722 2467 2241 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.8 16.1 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.2 161.1 163.0 164.9 166.8 170.4 173.8 177.1 180.0 183.0 186.0 188.8 191.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 16 14 20 23 47 47 42 33 30 49 44 54 49 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -25. -28. -30. -33. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -6. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. -23. -27. -36. -40. -42. -43. -46. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.4 159.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/09/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1057.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.9% 3.2% 2.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/09/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##