* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/09/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 110 107 107 102 97 91 86 79 75 70 70 69 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 113 110 107 107 102 97 91 86 79 75 70 70 69 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 112 108 106 104 102 98 92 85 76 69 60 51 46 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 7 3 7 6 8 13 23 21 23 14 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 -1 0 2 7 5 8 1 2 3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 22 349 334 316 311 249 263 244 266 267 264 264 221 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 141 142 146 148 151 153 155 153 152 156 152 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 40 41 42 42 45 48 48 52 58 65 69 72 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 14 17 16 15 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 79 73 76 71 56 47 22 -1 -20 -25 -31 -24 -18 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 9 -15 -20 -15 -19 15 2 -13 -20 34 -7 6 -12 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 8 1 6 4 6 9 5 5 3 6 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1021 1143 1246 1312 1402 1610 1847 2083 2329 2608 2854 2573 2330 2114 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.2 13.0 13.9 15.1 16.2 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 161.2 163.2 165.1 167.0 168.8 172.3 175.6 178.7 181.6 184.6 187.5 190.2 192.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 19 18 18 17 16 16 15 14 14 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 22 24 29 51 45 37 31 44 49 57 51 36 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -20. -25. -28. -30. -33. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -1. -2. -3. -7. -7. -9. -10. -13. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -8. -13. -18. -24. -29. -36. -40. -45. -45. -46. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.4 161.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/09/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1045.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/09/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##