* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/09/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 110 108 106 99 92 88 78 73 69 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 113 110 108 106 99 92 88 78 73 69 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 112 108 104 102 97 92 86 79 73 65 56 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 5 7 5 8 12 25 21 18 15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -2 -2 2 4 4 0 1 1 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 322 312 282 287 255 260 238 251 279 276 249 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.9 28.6 28.9 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 143 143 144 145 151 150 151 155 152 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 42 42 42 42 41 47 49 53 61 65 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 17 16 16 14 14 13 12 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 75 74 69 54 35 19 -1 -16 -23 -21 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -21 -7 -11 -22 27 12 -1 -13 38 10 -8 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 4 4 5 2 8 6 6 1 4 5 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1148 1237 1309 1398 1510 1751 1990 2241 2505 2768 2696 2438 2212 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.5 14.6 15.6 16.7 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.1 165.0 166.9 168.8 170.7 174.3 177.5 180.5 183.5 186.3 189.0 191.5 193.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 15 14 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 23 27 28 50 43 42 34 27 65 46 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -7. -8. -8. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -16. -23. -27. -37. -42. -46. -50. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.4 163.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/09/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1019.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/09/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##