* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/10/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 124 121 119 111 102 92 82 74 68 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 126 124 121 119 111 102 92 82 74 68 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 124 121 117 113 106 99 89 79 68 59 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 4 1 8 8 16 18 20 19 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 1 4 3 5 7 5 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 33 300 303 326 254 265 257 277 274 260 228 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 145 144 149 151 150 153 152 152 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 43 42 44 44 46 51 55 60 66 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 17 16 14 13 12 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 85 73 64 61 43 22 1 -10 -19 -20 -12 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 2 -13 3 35 28 10 -10 16 35 10 7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 6 6 8 8 6 5 5 5 0 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1337 1420 1525 1633 1752 1972 2203 2447 2683 2832 2601 2395 2223 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.2 15.3 16.0 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.9 168.8 170.7 172.4 174.1 177.1 180.0 182.7 185.3 187.7 189.9 191.9 193.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 17 16 15 15 13 12 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 29 51 51 37 44 37 26 67 51 49 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -25. -32. -37. -41. -43. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -6. -14. -23. -33. -43. -51. -57. -59. -59. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 11.6 166.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/10/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1068.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 4.3% 8.0% 9.2% 4.3% 4.2% 2.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 1.6% 2.7% 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/10/23 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 39 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##