* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/10/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 118 116 114 106 99 90 81 73 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 119 118 116 114 106 99 90 81 73 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 118 115 111 108 102 94 84 73 62 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 2 6 8 11 23 23 23 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 3 4 9 5 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 189 275 171 206 245 229 260 268 257 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 145 148 152 150 153 152 155 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 41 42 42 41 45 52 58 66 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 17 14 14 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 76 69 64 59 31 12 -4 -27 -21 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 4 5 37 42 11 -4 3 33 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 10 8 6 2 6 6 4 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1435 1537 1655 1764 1888 2152 2400 2689 2779 2506 2271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.3 14.0 15.1 15.9 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.9 170.7 172.5 174.3 176.1 179.4 182.2 185.3 188.2 190.8 193.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 19 18 15 15 15 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 51 50 36 43 38 28 70 47 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -10. -15. -22. -28. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -14. -21. -30. -39. -47. -52. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 11.9 168.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/10/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1067.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.0% 8.1% 14.9% 18.1% 10.3% 5.3% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 2.8% 5.0% 6.0% 3.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/10/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##