* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/11/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 102 101 98 88 81 76 70 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 104 102 101 98 88 81 76 70 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 104 101 98 95 88 81 75 66 59 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 6 5 16 19 21 15 14 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 7 6 0 3 8 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 153 191 225 241 238 241 268 280 279 288 287 316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 149 152 151 149 153 154 149 152 155 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 41 40 42 42 49 56 61 67 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 14 14 13 11 11 11 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 57 47 33 23 -4 -4 -20 -27 -19 -7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 26 26 -2 -3 -4 8 22 9 -21 -5 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 9 7 6 4 5 3 1 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1746 1847 1958 2070 2189 2386 2607 2848 2690 2486 2280 2145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.9 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.8 175.4 176.9 178.4 179.9 182.3 184.7 187.2 189.1 191.1 193.2 194.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 14 13 12 11 9 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 31 44 39 36 25 40 48 46 53 49 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -17. -24. -29. -35. -38. -40. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.9 173.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/11/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 968.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 4.0% 6.6% 7.1% 3.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 1.5% 2.2% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/11/23 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##