* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 08/11/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 40 50 59 67 72 80 83 84 81 80 79 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 40 50 59 67 72 80 83 84 81 80 79 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 44 48 54 61 68 71 69 63 56 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 9 11 18 19 16 12 8 4 3 7 3 3 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 8 3 0 0 -3 -1 1 0 0 2 3 3 7 7 7 SHEAR DIR 39 4 38 49 51 46 43 39 27 43 72 57 144 227 238 333 275 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.0 26.6 24.9 24.3 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 162 162 159 159 155 154 156 152 145 131 113 108 91 92 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 69 74 74 74 74 73 73 68 64 61 59 53 46 37 32 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 7 8 7 10 11 13 15 18 18 18 16 16 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -10 -15 -17 -13 -15 -14 4 15 16 27 17 12 9 3 8 -7 200 MB DIV 69 67 69 70 63 48 32 29 39 32 16 -20 -22 -35 -25 -13 -22 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 -6 -1 0 1 1 1 0 3 8 7 9 15 LAND (KM) 1007 1037 1081 1109 1122 1165 1223 1221 1207 1227 1252 1283 1353 1466 1655 1898 2001 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.7 12.5 13.1 13.9 14.6 15.6 16.7 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.9 108.9 109.8 110.7 112.4 113.9 115.2 116.4 117.7 119.1 120.9 123.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 12 13 14 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 21 33 39 18 17 18 16 9 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 19. 28. 34. 39. 42. 45. 48. 49. 48. 46. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -0. 3. 5. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 0. 3. 5. 9. 10. 14. 14. 13. 10. 8. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 25. 34. 42. 47. 55. 58. 59. 56. 55. 54. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 107.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 08/11/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 26.7% 12.2% 7.2% 0.5% 8.2% 9.0% 26.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% Consensus: 1.4% 16.2% 9.5% 2.4% 0.2% 8.9% 8.3% 9.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 08/11/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##