* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/11/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 91 86 79 74 70 69 67 67 69 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 91 86 79 74 70 69 67 67 69 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 97 93 89 85 79 74 68 64 61 60 62 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 9 16 19 17 15 7 7 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 8 7 6 0 2 1 1 0 0 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 243 224 229 240 267 276 279 241 209 210 118 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 28.5 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 151 152 152 153 147 147 148 152 148 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 38 40 43 48 56 61 66 69 69 65 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 37 22 10 5 -1 -21 -18 -22 -6 -1 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 15 8 -9 -14 19 20 17 -5 -5 -13 -17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 8 7 3 6 4 5 7 4 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1972 2073 2181 2285 2393 2601 2804 2710 2527 2378 2261 2200 2169 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.1 18.4 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.9 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.1 178.5 179.9 181.2 182.4 184.7 186.8 188.9 190.7 192.2 193.4 194.2 194.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 13 12 11 10 9 9 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 71 46 36 27 26 38 70 45 50 45 42 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -9. -7. -4. -1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -14. -21. -26. -30. -31. -33. -33. -31. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.2 177.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/11/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 971.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/11/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##