* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 08/11/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 40 47 56 63 69 71 71 73 70 67 66 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 40 47 56 63 69 71 71 73 70 67 66 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 33 39 45 52 60 68 73 74 73 69 65 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 14 15 13 13 11 7 6 6 9 10 12 9 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -3 -2 0 -1 1 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 36 46 46 28 36 51 45 49 52 75 111 134 160 160 164 176 213 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 27.8 26.8 25.9 25.3 24.0 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 162 161 158 159 159 160 158 155 142 132 123 117 104 92 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 69 68 66 61 58 55 51 48 46 41 35 34 29 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 8 8 10 11 13 12 13 12 10 7 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 2 6 -7 -8 1 18 18 21 14 17 18 16 16 7 -12 200 MB DIV 52 48 29 2 22 38 9 15 -25 -11 -18 -26 -25 -16 -27 -3 -7 700-850 TADV -4 0 -1 -7 -6 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 4 4 7 9 LAND (KM) 865 849 850 862 893 946 954 978 1042 1104 1177 1251 1392 1534 1699 1881 2070 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.4 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.9 109.7 110.5 111.3 112.7 114.0 115.2 116.5 117.9 119.5 121.2 123.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 7 8 9 9 11 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 25 40 48 27 21 23 29 23 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 28. 32. 35. 39. 42. 44. 45. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 7. 10. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 15. 22. 31. 38. 44. 46. 46. 48. 45. 42. 41. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 108.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 08/11/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.5% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.3% 3.1% 1.6% 0.4% 3.2% 0.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 10.5% 6.6% 0.5% 0.2% 7.7% 5.7% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 08/11/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##