* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 88 83 80 75 73 71 69 67 69 69 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 91 88 83 80 75 73 71 69 67 69 69 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 90 86 83 80 76 74 70 67 65 63 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 13 16 18 15 13 8 10 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 7 2 0 0 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 214 196 232 250 249 284 273 223 204 197 143 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 153 152 153 149 146 146 150 149 145 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 40 40 44 47 54 59 64 65 65 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 11 10 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 23 15 5 3 -8 -15 -14 -13 -15 -19 -27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 0 -17 -33 -7 40 14 15 0 8 -20 -16 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 11 5 5 8 3 3 0 4 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2087 2192 2302 2404 2510 2716 2804 2619 2461 2362 2322 2307 2327 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.3 22.5 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.6 180.0 181.3 182.5 183.7 185.9 188.0 189.8 191.4 192.5 193.1 193.6 194.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 36 28 26 28 64 50 48 47 44 30 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -7. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -15. -20. -22. -24. -26. -28. -26. -26. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.8 178.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 905.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/11/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##