* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 08/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 48 57 65 67 69 70 71 71 70 70 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 48 57 65 67 69 70 71 71 70 70 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 41 46 51 54 57 58 58 58 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 11 12 11 8 9 8 7 4 5 9 11 12 12 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 0 0 4 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -8 -1 SHEAR DIR 52 42 35 33 36 47 46 73 109 120 151 164 170 160 141 183 208 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.1 27.0 27.0 26.4 27.1 26.1 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 160 158 159 161 160 158 155 145 134 134 128 136 126 101 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 66 65 62 58 54 52 48 48 45 41 37 34 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 5 7 6 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR 4 2 1 -6 -15 -1 10 16 22 11 11 14 15 17 7 1 -11 200 MB DIV 32 12 15 26 35 20 30 0 -26 -20 -26 -27 -23 -15 -22 -24 18 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -3 -1 0 4 2 1 1 0 2 3 2 3 9 5 LAND (KM) 803 786 808 848 881 900 956 1048 1151 1240 1320 1462 1623 1788 1961 2144 2056 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.7 16.8 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.9 110.7 111.5 112.3 113.9 115.3 116.7 118.2 119.8 121.4 123.3 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 11 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 37 48 40 24 22 24 26 20 11 3 3 1 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 41. 43. 45. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 23. 32. 40. 42. 44. 45. 46. 46. 45. 45. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 109.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 08/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 2.0% 6.0% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.5% 9.4% 6.2% 0.3% 0.1% 6.8% 7.3% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 08/11/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##