* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 08/12/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 57 67 73 75 77 77 76 75 73 71 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 57 67 73 75 77 77 76 75 73 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 50 56 62 66 69 69 67 64 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 9 9 9 7 7 3 3 1 7 11 15 11 9 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 0 3 -2 2 1 2 0 2 -1 0 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 43 53 41 39 44 54 62 66 122 161 139 155 151 150 136 144 142 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.5 27.3 27.6 27.2 28.0 26.2 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 160 158 159 160 160 159 157 149 137 141 137 145 127 104 102 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 65 64 62 59 55 51 49 44 41 35 32 26 23 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 7 7 8 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 -9 -13 -7 4 13 17 18 9 12 21 20 24 13 3 -8 200 MB DIV 17 3 24 37 32 32 19 -5 -20 -23 -9 -28 -21 -24 -19 13 21 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 2 3 3 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 2 6 3 LAND (KM) 826 846 892 929 949 1010 1084 1197 1315 1422 1562 1746 1928 2109 2241 1950 1651 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 15.9 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.9 111.7 112.5 113.4 115.1 116.6 118.2 120.0 121.8 123.9 126.2 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 37 50 47 36 20 22 22 18 11 4 7 5 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 20. 27. 31. 35. 39. 42. 45. 47. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 32. 42. 48. 50. 52. 52. 51. 50. 48. 46. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 110.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 08/12/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 24.7% 11.5% 6.2% 3.4% 9.3% 10.2% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 18.4% 10.1% 2.1% 1.2% 10.3% 9.6% 4.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 08/12/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##