* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 08/12/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 58 67 71 74 71 68 67 63 60 59 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 58 67 71 74 71 68 67 63 60 59 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 48 54 57 55 51 47 43 38 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 9 11 8 1 1 7 11 12 6 3 5 3 3 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 3 3 2 3 5 4 4 2 2 8 8 5 1 3 SHEAR DIR 34 28 13 31 38 32 65 135 116 95 125 110 122 354 321 258 216 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.7 27.5 26.5 25.1 24.8 23.3 22.4 23.0 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 159 158 159 160 160 158 151 139 129 115 112 97 87 94 95 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 67 67 65 66 66 61 57 54 49 48 42 36 31 26 22 20 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 10 11 12 15 15 15 16 14 11 9 6 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -4 -6 0 4 10 20 21 13 22 28 25 21 21 24 17 12 200 MB DIV 19 38 53 45 37 50 35 29 -4 0 -16 -24 -26 -44 -25 24 1 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 -2 -4 1 2 0 0 -2 3 5 8 7 11 4 16 LAND (KM) 853 894 942 959 975 996 1062 1152 1216 1322 1437 1589 1775 1983 2027 1741 1500 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.4 112.2 113.1 114.0 115.5 116.9 118.5 120.2 122.1 124.3 126.8 129.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 14 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 43 53 44 28 21 25 28 16 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 37. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 8. 11. 11. 13. 10. 6. 3. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 33. 42. 46. 49. 46. 43. 42. 38. 35. 34. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 110.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 08/12/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.2% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 28.7% 12.7% 7.5% 2.4% 13.5% 6.9% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 17.9% 10.1% 2.5% 0.9% 11.3% 8.5% 1.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 10.0% 46.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 08/12/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##