* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 08/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 46 55 64 71 74 69 65 61 57 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 46 55 64 71 74 69 65 61 57 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 47 54 60 64 62 57 52 48 46 45 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 9 7 1 6 13 16 13 9 13 11 14 16 19 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 2 1 2 -2 0 3 5 6 3 4 1 2 7 SHEAR DIR 11 28 26 32 36 61 112 108 93 131 101 111 104 118 100 126 143 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.8 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.4 25.8 24.3 24.7 24.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 155 156 156 157 152 140 136 130 128 122 107 112 109 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 66 64 63 61 56 54 50 47 40 32 25 24 19 17 16 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 13 14 15 15 17 18 15 12 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 2 6 10 8 18 27 25 31 43 52 56 46 39 37 34 26 200 MB DIV 50 41 52 59 58 33 22 -26 -25 -39 -15 -29 -42 -21 -2 -8 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -6 -3 -1 2 0 -4 -3 0 2 2 1 4 2 5 6 LAND (KM) 964 967 978 1006 1042 1143 1269 1360 1491 1654 1835 2019 2198 2011 1664 1373 1159 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 10 13 12 11 12 14 15 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 48 34 22 17 19 22 20 14 6 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 7. 3. -1. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 25. 34. 41. 44. 39. 35. 31. 27. 27. 27. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 112.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 08/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.96 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 21.4% 17.7% 14.9% 0.0% 21.7% 19.4% 21.2% Logistic: 5.7% 22.1% 11.9% 6.1% 1.5% 8.7% 2.7% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 10.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 18.0% 10.7% 7.1% 0.5% 10.5% 7.7% 8.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 28.0% 14.0% 8.0% 5.0% 16.0% 28.0% 38.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 08/12/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##