* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 57 67 73 77 75 68 62 57 54 53 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 57 67 73 77 75 68 62 57 54 53 52 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 52 62 70 75 74 67 60 52 46 42 41 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 7 5 4 2 8 7 15 12 8 9 12 9 21 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 3 1 4 3 0 1 5 9 7 4 6 0 11 9 SHEAR DIR 39 36 35 37 76 168 107 113 98 116 103 82 105 112 110 143 111 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.2 26.7 25.9 26.0 25.2 23.9 24.0 24.3 25.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 155 156 156 156 155 146 131 123 124 116 103 104 107 114 119 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 61 59 57 53 46 37 32 28 25 22 20 18 19 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 17 18 19 19 16 13 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 10 15 17 30 34 34 43 47 41 37 30 29 24 32 16 200 MB DIV 44 53 66 64 59 31 20 -14 -19 -44 -14 -35 -19 -2 -8 -12 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 0 1 0 -2 -6 -2 3 6 3 1 7 1 6 3 LAND (KM) 968 981 1002 1045 1094 1189 1267 1351 1488 1657 1846 2064 2123 1811 1506 1224 972 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.5 115.3 116.2 117.0 118.6 120.2 121.9 124.2 126.7 129.2 131.9 134.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 32 20 17 19 20 24 19 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 4. 0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 32. 38. 42. 40. 33. 27. 22. 19. 18. 17. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 113.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 36.0% 25.4% 18.4% 12.4% 26.6% 32.4% 27.4% Logistic: 12.9% 45.0% 32.2% 22.1% 6.7% 20.9% 2.1% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 12.5% 4.2% 1.6% 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 31.2% 20.6% 14.0% 6.5% 16.8% 11.7% 10.3% DTOPS: 12.0% 60.0% 35.0% 26.0% 19.0% 52.0% 69.0% 55.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/13/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##