* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 08/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 53 61 66 69 69 65 63 60 57 55 53 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 53 61 66 69 69 65 63 60 57 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 33 38 42 45 47 46 43 40 37 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 12 12 9 7 3 4 8 14 16 15 14 9 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -2 0 -2 1 2 0 5 7 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 67 75 65 59 75 99 105 189 160 183 187 217 243 256 255 264 288 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.4 27.0 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 151 150 148 139 135 129 129 125 122 119 121 121 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 63 63 62 62 62 57 53 50 48 44 40 33 29 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 -11 -9 -12 -1 8 14 3 -10 -18 -17 -17 -6 -3 -4 -6 200 MB DIV 47 59 62 25 20 16 -36 -22 13 29 36 11 -24 -21 -21 -19 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 6 5 0 -2 -5 -11 -7 LAND (KM) 2521 2437 2344 2247 2149 1945 1703 1425 1113 807 527 305 141 58 142 266 403 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.4 12.1 13.4 14.9 16.3 17.4 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.6 134.3 135.1 136.0 136.9 139.0 141.3 143.9 146.5 148.9 151.1 152.9 154.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 11 13 14 14 13 12 9 8 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 16 17 28 13 3 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 10. 21. 31. 38. 43. 46. 48. 47. 46. 44. 42. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 33. 41. 46. 49. 49. 45. 43. 40. 37. 35. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 133.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 08/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 8.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 2.3% 6.2% 29.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 2.1% 9.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 08/13/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##