* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 08/13/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 50 58 63 64 62 57 54 50 47 43 40 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 50 58 63 64 62 57 48 48 45 41 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 36 39 41 40 36 32 31 27 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 10 8 8 5 3 7 14 19 19 22 23 21 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 0 1 2 1 4 5 7 5 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 74 76 76 73 81 83 138 223 170 187 211 228 240 251 252 252 269 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.1 26.3 25.9 25.6 26.1 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 150 142 135 134 126 128 123 119 123 125 124 122 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 63 63 62 62 59 54 52 48 46 42 36 31 30 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -8 -9 0 8 15 14 0 -11 -9 -10 -2 -5 1 1 7 200 MB DIV 61 56 34 25 32 -8 -40 -2 6 13 30 -2 8 14 -7 -15 -39 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 5 6 2 -2 -4 -11 -8 -13 LAND (KM) 2432 2349 2251 2144 2043 1800 1545 1244 927 629 366 151 -5 42 145 238 335 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.9 13.0 14.5 15.9 17.3 18.5 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.3 135.0 135.9 136.9 137.9 140.3 142.7 145.3 147.8 150.2 152.2 153.8 155.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 13 11 9 7 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 16 17 21 25 4 7 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 10. 21. 30. 37. 42. 44. 45. 45. 44. 42. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 30. 38. 43. 44. 42. 37. 34. 30. 27. 23. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 134.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 08/13/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 12.9% 4.0% 2.0% 0.6% 3.3% 2.6% 11.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 4.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 0.9% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 08/13/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##