* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 71 76 76 72 63 58 51 44 44 44 45 48 48 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 71 76 76 72 63 58 51 44 44 44 45 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 66 70 75 75 69 62 57 50 44 41 39 39 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 3 3 3 8 7 13 9 7 4 8 9 17 12 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 2 4 0 0 4 7 6 7 5 1 7 8 6 SHEAR DIR 34 10 359 23 223 136 147 122 140 103 91 101 118 125 164 126 236 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.1 26.8 25.9 26.0 25.0 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.3 25.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 154 154 152 145 132 123 125 115 101 107 113 118 120 125 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 54 55 51 45 35 30 25 23 21 20 19 20 22 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 17 17 19 18 18 15 14 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 11 23 26 32 30 35 42 31 42 38 47 46 61 54 37 200 MB DIV 60 44 36 35 37 34 -28 -14 -40 -27 -48 -9 9 4 -22 11 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 4 2 1 3 0 2 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1029 1063 1101 1155 1213 1272 1351 1495 1657 1855 2084 2059 1715 1385 1071 777 490 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.4 117.1 118.0 118.9 120.4 122.0 124.3 126.7 129.4 132.2 135.3 138.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 8 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 22 22 19 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. -2. -6. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 26. 26. 22. 13. 8. 1. -6. -6. -6. -5. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.3 115.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.59 12.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 8.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -9.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 9.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.73 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.6% 60.4% 47.6% 40.6% 22.9% 49.4% 35.1% 0.0% Logistic: 21.8% 40.6% 39.5% 26.4% 10.3% 7.8% 0.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 2.3% 11.1% 3.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 17.6% 37.4% 30.2% 22.8% 11.4% 19.2% 11.8% 0.2% DTOPS: 28.0% 58.0% 40.0% 29.0% 20.0% 34.0% 18.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##