* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 08/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 51 60 67 69 68 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 51 60 67 69 68 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 41 47 52 56 58 59 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 14 9 7 9 3 2 4 8 9 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -2 -5 -5 -1 0 1 1 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 89 96 86 87 102 128 123 197 241 296 299 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.9 27.4 26.8 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 142 139 144 139 133 136 132 132 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 60 59 59 61 58 54 53 54 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 12 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -3 1 5 6 14 23 10 -1 -11 -15 -21 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 42 47 46 30 -11 -10 -2 6 35 3 -10 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2275 2155 2036 1923 1811 1587 1353 1131 865 677 563 563 722 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 11 11 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 17 21 24 6 10 9 2 5 3 27 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 29. 35. 40. 43. 46. 47. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 26. 35. 42. 44. 43. 43. 42. 41. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 135.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 08/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.7% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 33.6% 13.5% 7.5% 6.0% 5.6% 8.9% 27.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 19.6% 10.6% 2.5% 2.0% 8.5% 8.6% 9.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 8.0% 10.0% 29.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 08/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##