* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 96 102 107 107 103 95 82 72 63 55 50 47 48 49 50 50 V (KT) LAND 85 96 102 107 107 103 95 82 72 63 55 50 47 48 49 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 85 98 106 109 108 100 87 75 66 57 50 45 42 40 40 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 5 6 4 10 8 7 2 5 5 11 10 8 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 5 6 5 3 3 4 6 6 6 0 1 6 8 0 SHEAR DIR 21 40 218 184 177 150 108 112 128 107 95 66 102 125 139 147 206 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.4 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.0 23.6 24.1 24.7 25.1 25.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 154 153 148 132 127 122 118 104 99 105 111 116 117 123 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 54 53 51 43 39 36 32 28 24 22 21 21 22 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 20 20 19 19 16 15 12 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 22 20 23 28 31 36 49 27 33 28 23 7 15 22 20 18 200 MB DIV 11 26 45 23 32 -18 -5 -39 -19 -37 -38 -9 12 -7 8 5 1 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 0 -1 0 6 4 4 7 5 9 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1088 1118 1150 1199 1233 1297 1432 1611 1751 1966 2206 1914 1659 1377 1056 770 522 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.4 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.8 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.5 118.1 118.9 119.7 121.3 123.5 126.0 128.2 130.9 133.9 136.7 139.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 11 12 14 14 12 12 14 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 23 26 23 17 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 12. 8. 5. 2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 11. 17. 22. 22. 18. 10. -3. -13. -22. -29. -35. -38. -37. -36. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.5 116.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.28 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 18.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 559.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.29 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 10.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.92 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 84% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 84.0% 60.8% 60.6% 59.6% 48.2% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 67.6% 36.7% 51.0% 37.5% 18.8% 10.8% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 18.8% 11.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 56.8% 36.4% 38.0% 32.8% 22.4% 13.1% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 79.0% 63.0% 49.0% 38.0% 24.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##