* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 08/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 50 51 52 51 49 48 49 51 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 50 51 52 51 49 48 49 51 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 43 43 41 39 39 38 39 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 11 9 4 5 8 9 9 11 15 14 17 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -6 -8 -4 1 1 1 0 0 -4 -2 -2 -6 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 107 95 102 107 145 181 214 216 256 286 297 306 299 304 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 28.0 27.3 26.9 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 140 140 145 138 134 137 132 131 130 134 138 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 58 60 63 60 56 54 53 46 43 42 44 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 14 13 11 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 11 14 17 24 14 2 -7 -15 -21 -19 -16 -9 -10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 70 27 -10 -16 -18 6 -1 -1 -5 -12 -20 -16 -13 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -4 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2002 1899 1798 1680 1564 1344 1123 874 678 539 550 713 975 1141 1299 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 23 25 10 7 10 9 3 5 3 28 6 9 29 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. 42. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 18. 19. 21. 22. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 138.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 08/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 17.7% 15.7% 13.2% 0.0% 17.1% 14.5% 9.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.9% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.4% 5.7% 4.5% 0.1% 5.9% 5.5% 5.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 08/14/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##