* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 115 119 117 112 99 86 72 63 54 50 45 43 45 46 48 51 V (KT) LAND 105 115 119 117 112 99 86 72 63 54 50 45 43 45 46 48 51 V (KT) LGEM 105 116 120 117 112 97 82 69 58 50 44 40 37 36 35 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 9 9 11 14 8 8 5 4 13 17 10 10 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 5 5 3 5 5 6 11 6 4 0 3 5 7 2 SHEAR DIR 2 326 181 155 144 110 121 109 125 77 73 76 118 145 157 164 266 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 27.6 26.9 26.0 26.2 25.1 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.2 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 151 140 134 125 127 116 103 106 111 115 116 126 125 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 51 49 45 39 33 31 26 24 21 20 20 20 21 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 21 20 19 18 18 15 13 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 21 23 29 36 37 52 43 37 36 36 24 35 28 23 23 14 200 MB DIV 23 40 18 20 7 -21 -16 -39 -24 -32 -9 2 -17 4 -8 -7 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 -3 0 2 7 0 12 5 9 4 2 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 1131 1170 1213 1242 1271 1383 1547 1743 1949 2172 2001 1694 1379 1087 822 543 286 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.2 118.9 119.7 120.5 122.5 124.8 127.5 130.2 133.0 135.9 138.8 141.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 22 22 19 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -11. -17. -23. -29. -34. -39. -42. -45. -47. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 14. 12. 8. 3. -2. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -16. -18. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 14. 12. 7. -6. -19. -33. -42. -51. -55. -60. -62. -60. -59. -57. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.5 117.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.10 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 10.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 727.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.10 -1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.81 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 68.3% 27.7% 26.7% 25.7% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 56.6% 16.2% 33.8% 23.8% 13.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 42.3% 14.7% 20.2% 16.5% 11.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 50.0% 15.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##