* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082023 08/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 46 49 49 50 49 49 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 46 49 49 50 49 49 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 46 46 44 43 42 41 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 10 9 6 11 10 11 11 12 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -8 -7 -3 1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 98 104 111 138 203 197 207 240 254 281 303 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.0 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 141 143 142 134 137 135 131 130 133 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 60 63 61 57 55 55 51 51 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 13 12 10 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 12 13 24 23 13 -3 -1 -4 -4 -10 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 38 -10 -16 -20 -29 -8 -6 4 3 -13 -28 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 -3 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1903 1779 1657 1548 1442 1200 979 788 609 604 722 902 1106 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.2 13.6 13.6 13.2 12.8 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.2 140.5 141.8 143.0 144.1 146.7 149.2 151.3 154.3 156.8 158.9 161.3 164.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 13 12 12 14 11 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 10 7 8 11 4 5 4 22 13 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 139.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 EIGHT 08/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 16.6% 15.0% 12.7% 0.0% 16.6% 13.7% 8.6% Logistic: 1.4% 9.4% 3.6% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.8% 6.2% 4.7% 0.5% 5.8% 4.7% 3.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 EIGHT 08/14/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##