* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 122 123 120 114 99 84 72 60 52 45 41 41 43 45 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 122 123 120 114 99 84 72 60 52 45 41 41 43 45 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 121 121 116 109 92 77 66 55 47 40 37 35 34 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 10 10 13 12 11 3 7 6 10 7 7 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 3 2 1 3 5 10 9 7 3 2 6 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 185 164 151 130 117 110 126 153 93 85 111 122 131 126 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 26.7 26.1 26.1 24.9 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.6 25.1 25.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 149 146 131 125 126 114 102 106 110 110 114 116 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 51 48 49 40 36 33 28 25 23 20 22 22 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 20 21 20 17 16 13 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 32 32 35 46 50 36 41 37 42 35 42 29 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 28 10 -2 -2 -5 -37 -19 -32 -24 -1 10 -22 -9 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 1 5 5 5 10 7 12 4 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1166 1206 1233 1274 1320 1454 1626 1836 2058 2089 1741 1423 1125 885 696 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.4 18.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.9 119.7 120.6 121.5 123.7 126.2 128.9 131.9 135.0 138.3 141.3 144.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 12 12 13 15 15 15 14 12 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 23 21 18 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -17. -26. -33. -41. -47. -52. -56. -60. -62. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 1. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -4. -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -20. -18. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 8. 5. -1. -16. -31. -43. -55. -63. -70. -74. -74. -72. -70. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.7 118.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 832.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 37.0% 9.0% 20.2% 11.2% 9.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.8% 3.0% 6.7% 3.7% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##