* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 41 44 46 50 49 50 49 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 41 44 46 50 49 50 49 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 43 43 43 43 42 42 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 10 4 6 7 10 6 9 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -5 -1 1 0 0 0 1 -4 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 115 115 135 175 176 185 198 224 282 298 307 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 145 149 146 141 136 132 131 132 137 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 63 64 59 57 57 57 51 51 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 13 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 22 28 27 17 6 -3 -2 -8 -10 -18 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 14 -6 -28 -27 -24 0 20 -1 -20 -30 -15 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1791 1678 1568 1461 1358 1157 947 784 673 708 854 1053 1225 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.2 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.4 141.6 142.8 144.0 145.2 147.5 150.0 152.4 155.0 157.5 160.1 162.7 165.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 12 9 9 13 13 8 4 3 12 7 11 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 40. 41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 15. 14. 15. 14. 14. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 140.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 16.1% 14.7% 12.5% 0.0% 16.4% 14.1% 8.6% Logistic: 0.6% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.0% 5.4% 4.3% 0.1% 5.6% 4.8% 3.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##