* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 114 111 106 92 78 68 57 49 44 41 42 44 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 116 114 111 106 92 78 68 57 49 44 41 42 44 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 115 111 105 98 83 70 59 50 42 37 35 33 33 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 9 11 12 12 9 6 5 10 13 8 10 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 3 3 4 2 6 10 8 6 2 4 8 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 177 164 147 122 108 103 106 143 80 84 80 121 120 137 175 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.7 25.7 25.7 24.4 23.7 24.3 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 146 141 132 121 122 109 101 107 110 115 118 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 49 49 45 38 33 31 27 24 21 20 20 19 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 19 20 21 19 16 14 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 33 31 41 60 42 44 44 45 37 37 43 34 29 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 34 6 1 9 0 -46 -12 -35 -18 7 -8 -7 -2 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -3 0 1 8 1 12 5 10 6 3 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1205 1237 1264 1309 1360 1530 1704 1921 2164 1951 1635 1309 994 683 381 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.6 120.4 121.4 122.3 124.8 127.4 130.2 133.2 136.3 139.3 142.4 145.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 18 15 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -18. -27. -35. -42. -49. -54. -57. -60. -61. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. 1. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -21. -21. -19. -17. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -9. -23. -37. -47. -58. -66. -71. -74. -73. -71. -68. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.8 118.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 848.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 1.8% 3.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 0.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##