* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 38 42 45 47 50 51 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 38 42 45 47 50 51 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 38 40 43 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 4 3 5 4 7 3 3 9 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 116 113 139 220 284 190 162 193 231 330 317 313 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.4 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 147 149 144 141 134 132 131 133 138 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 65 64 63 62 62 60 57 55 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 24 22 19 13 -6 -4 -9 -8 -13 -8 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 -4 -26 -31 -29 -15 0 10 -11 -24 -35 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1718 1612 1509 1400 1294 1099 903 740 702 774 932 1138 1279 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.2 142.3 143.4 144.6 145.8 148.2 150.6 153.2 155.6 158.2 160.8 163.4 165.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 10 8 11 14 11 8 3 4 12 7 14 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 141.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.97 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 14.2% 12.6% 10.2% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 8.1% Logistic: 0.8% 7.2% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.1% 5.2% 3.7% 0.1% 5.0% 0.1% 3.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##