* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 08/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 46 60 72 85 100 108 117 117 117 110 104 98 93 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 46 60 72 85 100 108 117 117 117 110 104 98 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 38 47 63 87 114 134 142 130 111 91 75 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 16 19 18 10 4 4 7 5 3 6 4 7 6 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 3 0 -2 -4 -4 -5 -5 -1 0 -3 -4 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 32 38 29 359 3 331 344 1 96 72 142 72 341 61 63 212 215 SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.9 30.4 30.6 31.0 29.8 27.8 26.0 24.9 24.1 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 164 165 162 158 157 164 171 174 174 164 142 122 111 103 88 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -50.5 -50.6 -49.7 -49.4 -49.1 -48.9 -48.6 -48.5 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 84 85 84 84 84 86 86 85 85 82 78 72 70 62 57 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 18 22 25 29 34 38 44 46 48 46 44 38 34 850 MB ENV VOR 98 106 93 89 85 74 63 37 60 73 117 117 120 117 130 113 121 200 MB DIV 115 133 121 122 135 151 255 183 191 151 155 105 77 47 46 3 26 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -4 -8 -8 -7 -4 -4 -1 -4 0 -4 -1 5 7 4 11 LAND (KM) 599 659 674 692 713 742 727 634 484 349 389 329 405 400 351 273 285 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.6 12.0 14.1 16.5 18.8 20.3 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.7 96.8 98.0 99.1 100.8 102.1 103.2 104.5 106.4 109.0 111.5 113.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 10 14 16 16 12 9 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 23 27 27 27 23 33 55 53 53 16 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 21. 31. 38. 43. 46. 49. 51. 52. 51. 50. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 4. 6. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 21. 31. 36. 43. 44. 42. 36. 31. 23. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 5. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 35. 47. 60. 75. 83. 92. 92. 92. 85. 79. 73. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 94.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 08/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 28.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 13.7% 3.7% 2.1% 0.8% 4.9% 27.3% 49.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 2.2% 11.4% Consensus: 0.4% 11.7% 6.7% 0.7% 0.3% 9.1% 19.3% 20.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 08/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##