* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/15/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 102 99 94 81 71 61 53 45 41 40 42 45 48 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 107 102 99 94 81 71 61 53 45 41 40 42 45 48 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 105 99 93 87 73 61 52 43 37 33 31 30 31 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 12 14 11 11 2 5 7 6 2 4 3 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 1 2 1 5 10 9 7 5 4 3 7 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 136 127 114 114 101 127 76 62 41 100 94 138 153 201 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.6 25.9 25.8 24.6 23.7 23.8 24.4 24.6 25.1 25.6 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 145 139 130 124 122 110 101 102 108 110 115 120 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 44 42 37 32 31 26 25 22 21 20 19 20 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 20 20 18 16 13 10 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 33 33 41 49 51 38 48 39 47 37 42 36 33 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 19 3 21 22 -37 -31 -24 -18 -11 28 -23 0 -1 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 6 4 4 7 6 11 4 4 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1214 1244 1281 1350 1414 1588 1793 1997 2138 1824 1510 1196 884 606 347 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.4 121.3 122.4 123.5 126.1 128.9 131.5 134.5 137.5 140.5 143.5 146.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 20 17 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -18. -26. -34. -41. -47. -51. -55. -57. -58. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -10. -14. -18. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -11. -16. -29. -39. -49. -57. -65. -69. -70. -68. -65. -62. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.3 119.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/15/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 862.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/15/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##