* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/15/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 43 44 47 47 48 49 49 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 43 44 47 47 48 49 49 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 44 43 42 42 42 42 42 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 3 3 3 3 4 7 9 10 11 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 3 2 3 0 0 -1 1 1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 110 136 200 265 181 224 182 263 310 316 325 310 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.2 27.6 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 148 149 146 142 136 132 132 132 137 141 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 60 59 57 59 57 53 53 49 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 21 24 17 4 -7 -11 -14 -12 -17 -11 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -28 -27 -35 -19 -14 11 0 -7 -24 -31 -8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1592 1490 1390 1274 1163 963 784 696 737 877 1078 1261 1418 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.2 11.8 11.5 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.6 143.7 144.8 146.1 147.3 149.9 152.4 154.9 157.4 160.0 162.6 165.2 167.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 12 14 13 8 4 3 11 8 11 35 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 12. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.3 142.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/15/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.05 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 17.6% 14.9% 12.5% 8.2% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 21.5% 11.1% 3.9% 1.3% 2.1% 0.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 13.2% 8.7% 5.5% 3.2% 6.2% 0.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/15/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##