* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 08/15/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 52 62 69 76 79 78 77 75 70 66 62 60 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 52 62 69 76 79 78 77 75 70 66 62 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 50 61 73 82 87 85 79 70 58 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 11 12 15 9 8 4 11 3 1 6 7 5 3 9 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 -6 -3 -1 1 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 22 28 29 29 19 41 71 34 2 268 297 258 162 162 172 219 214 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.6 30.3 30.5 30.9 30.5 28.6 26.1 25.5 23.6 21.7 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 166 163 163 158 160 169 172 174 172 151 123 118 99 80 62 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -50.8 -51.3 -50.2 -50.4 -49.3 -49.5 -48.6 -48.9 -48.1 -48.7 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 4 3 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 83 86 85 84 85 83 80 77 74 66 62 56 50 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 92 84 82 84 65 55 38 68 92 119 96 127 105 127 103 102 200 MB DIV 150 127 120 139 113 171 222 157 201 155 121 88 79 40 46 31 56 700-850 TADV -6 0 -1 -3 -1 -5 -3 -1 -2 0 -7 -4 3 9 8 15 11 LAND (KM) 655 673 664 674 680 712 675 576 410 343 348 288 314 272 162 183 260 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.5 13.1 15.3 17.7 19.8 21.4 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.6 97.7 98.8 99.8 101.7 103.0 104.2 105.6 107.7 110.2 112.3 114.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 12 14 16 14 12 7 9 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 27 28 30 26 28 49 43 44 23 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 10. 20. 30. 37. 41. 44. 47. 48. 49. 48. 47. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 27. 37. 44. 51. 54. 53. 52. 50. 45. 41. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 95.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 08/15/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 41.3% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 30.8% 63.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 31.4% 11.1% 7.3% 2.4% 17.4% 50.0% 60.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1.6% 1.2% 9.0% Consensus: 0.8% 25.2% 11.1% 2.5% 0.8% 16.6% 38.3% 23.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 08/15/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##