* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 54 59 60 61 60 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 54 59 60 61 60 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 52 55 57 58 59 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 2 2 4 4 3 5 6 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 1 2 1 2 0 -2 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 177 340 122 139 138 198 304 322 326 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 150 149 147 141 132 132 131 134 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 57 57 58 58 54 51 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 21 21 19 16 0 -5 -9 -11 -17 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -23 -19 -16 -9 -4 4 -1 -10 -27 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -5 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1494 1392 1294 1194 1101 896 743 726 815 991 1216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.4 12.2 11.8 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.9 145.0 146.2 147.5 148.7 151.2 153.4 156.0 158.7 161.3 163.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 13 15 14 12 8 3 4 12 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 15. 16. 15. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.1 143.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.94 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 22.7% 18.5% 15.8% 10.9% 20.9% 17.3% 9.6% Logistic: 10.9% 38.4% 23.4% 10.8% 3.1% 4.7% 0.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 20.8% 14.0% 8.9% 4.7% 8.5% 5.9% 3.9% DTOPS: 6.0% 13.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/15/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##