* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 08/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 47 63 78 94 106 114 118 115 106 97 87 80 77 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 47 63 78 94 106 114 118 115 106 97 87 80 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 39 54 75 102 129 138 120 98 76 57 44 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 21 14 12 5 6 9 6 3 4 3 5 5 6 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 -4 -3 -1 -5 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 2 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 35 4 7 341 9 4 149 37 23 106 77 45 51 272 244 260 186 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.5 30.3 30.1 29.0 27.1 25.3 23.0 21.0 20.3 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 165 167 166 166 166 172 170 166 155 136 117 92 71 65 62 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -49.7 -49.4 -49.0 -48.3 -48.1 -48.1 -48.5 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 86 85 86 84 81 74 72 65 60 47 40 39 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 17 20 24 30 35 39 44 48 47 43 38 33 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 92 84 81 90 81 99 92 110 119 152 123 136 165 155 131 102 62 200 MB DIV 110 93 90 86 112 194 195 155 155 171 95 36 -9 1 -5 0 25 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -9 -9 -9 -5 -7 -8 -1 -4 3 11 6 7 9 8 LAND (KM) 662 636 631 619 600 622 627 599 721 638 568 555 604 595 590 628 556 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 10 10 13 13 10 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 27 30 40 34 38 26 26 31 28 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 20. 29. 36. 40. 43. 45. 47. 47. 45. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 15. 25. 34. 40. 44. 42. 33. 25. 17. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 22. 38. 53. 69. 81. 89. 93. 90. 81. 72. 62. 55. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 96.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 08/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 54.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 15.1% 3.7% 2.2% 0.9% 7.8% 38.1% 39.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.6% 69.6% Consensus: 0.2% 13.3% 7.2% 0.8% 0.3% 10.9% 31.4% 36.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 23.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 15.0% 17.0% 64.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 08/15/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##