* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 85 80 75 65 58 50 44 39 39 40 43 45 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 90 85 80 75 65 58 50 44 39 39 40 43 45 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 76 70 59 50 42 36 32 30 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 11 11 12 3 4 8 7 3 5 8 13 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 5 4 5 11 11 7 6 3 4 8 6 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 121 114 117 105 99 112 111 41 11 84 157 166 174 213 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.4 26.5 26.4 25.9 25.8 25.1 24.2 24.0 24.6 24.7 25.3 25.7 25.3 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 138 129 128 123 122 116 106 105 111 112 118 122 117 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 45 42 40 38 34 30 26 24 21 21 20 21 24 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 21 20 17 14 11 9 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 42 48 54 53 42 43 39 42 30 38 33 30 21 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 15 17 4 -39 -20 -28 -34 -1 20 -5 13 -19 -7 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -2 -1 -1 1 4 2 7 7 12 5 0 -3 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1290 1364 1440 1510 1588 1791 2008 2161 1825 1489 1151 828 528 278 106 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.4 123.5 124.8 126.0 128.7 131.4 134.3 137.5 140.7 143.9 147.0 150.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 12 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -25. -29. -33. -37. -39. -42. -43. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -4. -0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -6. -12. -16. -20. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -30. -37. -45. -51. -56. -56. -55. -52. -50. -48. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.9 121.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 818.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##