* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 54 54 55 53 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 54 54 55 53 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 48 50 52 53 54 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 5 2 5 3 8 12 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 4 -2 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 293 158 186 160 152 238 321 328 335 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 141 142 140 133 127 133 138 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 57 56 57 60 57 52 50 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 13 12 13 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 18 17 10 -3 -7 -12 -17 -17 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -19 -15 -7 7 19 -1 -7 -32 -12 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -1 -1 -1 1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1388 1287 1190 1084 985 800 707 745 876 1073 1287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.4 12.6 12.4 12.1 11.7 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.2 146.4 147.5 148.8 150.0 152.5 154.9 157.3 159.8 162.4 165.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 8 8 7 5 5 8 11 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 9. 10. 8. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.1 145.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 18.2% 15.9% 13.6% 9.0% 18.3% 15.0% 8.4% Logistic: 10.6% 34.9% 21.8% 11.3% 2.1% 5.9% 0.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 17.8% 12.6% 8.3% 3.7% 8.1% 5.0% 3.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##