* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 08/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 60 78 94 108 114 117 112 104 93 81 75 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 60 78 94 108 114 117 112 104 93 81 75 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 39 54 78 105 125 124 106 83 62 48 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 18 17 15 5 8 5 4 5 1 1 5 4 9 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -5 -7 -1 -2 -5 -4 0 -2 2 0 0 2 2 7 SHEAR DIR 33 18 19 8 37 35 66 64 118 121 209 245 294 283 296 278 241 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.6 30.2 29.6 29.7 27.3 26.0 23.6 22.4 21.4 20.9 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 166 168 167 167 162 168 162 163 138 124 98 84 75 71 64 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.3 -49.4 -49.2 -48.1 -48.1 -47.9 -48.4 -48.5 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 83 87 86 87 85 83 78 75 71 61 52 43 36 31 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 23 29 34 38 42 45 44 41 36 29 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR 74 69 68 68 63 84 88 109 136 144 116 144 149 133 118 99 75 200 MB DIV 73 81 93 125 143 203 153 163 130 113 47 -4 -11 0 6 17 12 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -9 -3 -8 -7 -2 -2 -1 -5 6 12 0 3 1 8 LAND (KM) 653 626 595 591 570 602 604 645 698 635 600 577 532 530 580 683 669 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 30 36 31 38 22 28 23 24 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 9. 19. 28. 35. 39. 41. 43. 43. 42. 40. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 15. 24. 33. 39. 42. 39. 31. 23. 14. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 35. 53. 69. 83. 89. 92. 87. 79. 68. 56. 50. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 97.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 08/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -7.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 25.6% 51.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 10.9% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 6.7% 39.0% 36.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.3% 4.3% 24.7% Consensus: 0.2% 12.0% 7.0% 0.5% 0.4% 11.5% 31.6% 20.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 14.0% 10.0% 56.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 08/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##