* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 88 83 78 67 57 49 41 37 37 38 40 40 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 93 88 83 78 67 57 49 41 37 37 38 40 40 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 92 86 80 74 64 55 46 40 36 35 34 34 33 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 12 11 9 4 3 8 7 4 9 10 16 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 2 4 6 11 8 6 4 2 6 8 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 124 109 96 88 98 129 83 30 48 113 166 177 195 215 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.7 24.8 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.3 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 130 128 124 120 122 112 104 110 114 116 117 120 117 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 41 39 38 34 30 26 24 22 21 20 21 23 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 20 20 19 18 14 12 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 50 55 53 51 50 48 48 40 38 42 34 25 19 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 18 2 -31 -34 -11 -53 -26 14 -10 4 4 0 -3 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 0 0 3 2 7 3 8 5 6 2 -2 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1345 1429 1499 1592 1689 1889 2123 2014 1677 1341 1015 714 454 220 119 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.4 124.6 125.9 127.2 129.9 132.8 135.7 138.9 142.1 145.2 148.1 150.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -21. -26. -30. -34. -38. -40. -43. -43. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -3. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -19. -22. -23. -23. -21. -20. -19. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -12. -17. -28. -37. -46. -54. -58. -58. -57. -55. -55. -54. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.2 122.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 854.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##