* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 51 55 55 55 54 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 51 55 55 55 54 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 48 50 51 53 53 54 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 3 4 1 9 13 14 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 0 6 1 -1 0 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 178 169 152 151 182 308 329 323 320 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.4 26.6 27.2 27.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 142 141 138 128 131 137 140 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 57 59 59 54 49 46 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 13 13 10 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 18 15 3 1 -5 -13 -18 -13 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -17 -2 4 16 14 -22 -24 -37 -10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1280 1178 1082 977 874 746 729 838 1023 1234 1394 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.4 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.6 147.8 149.0 150.3 151.6 154.0 156.4 159.0 161.8 164.3 166.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 8 8 7 3 8 10 19 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.1 146.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 20.9% 17.1% 14.4% 9.9% 19.2% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 14.3% 41.5% 26.6% 12.9% 3.8% 4.0% 0.2% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 21.0% 14.6% 9.1% 4.6% 7.7% 5.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##