* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 08/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 47 62 81 94 110 111 114 104 92 80 71 65 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 47 62 81 94 110 111 114 104 92 80 71 65 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 41 58 82 108 122 111 89 64 48 38 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 17 14 10 5 8 3 3 6 5 5 6 8 4 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -6 -6 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 0 -2 -2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 18 14 32 46 41 21 43 54 100 119 80 117 176 240 263 224 213 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 30.2 30.0 29.0 26.6 24.3 22.7 21.7 20.9 20.2 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 166 163 164 164 163 168 166 156 131 106 89 78 70 63 61 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -49.7 -49.4 -48.6 -47.7 -48.0 -48.1 -48.2 -48.8 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 87 86 88 86 85 83 75 73 64 55 48 46 41 37 34 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 19 21 24 32 34 41 41 45 41 35 29 24 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 70 68 60 63 80 73 105 111 146 129 131 125 120 84 88 60 52 200 MB DIV 84 84 117 148 184 170 166 154 156 86 27 -12 19 11 23 8 13 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -3 -5 -8 -2 -6 -4 -3 7 8 1 11 4 2 12 LAND (KM) 641 622 623 619 633 603 602 649 623 583 527 449 297 345 493 576 465 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 12 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 34 27 32 27 21 31 25 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 18. 27. 34. 37. 40. 41. 40. 38. 36. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 16. 23. 35. 36. 40. 33. 23. 14. 8. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 22. 37. 56. 69. 85. 86. 89. 79. 67. 55. 46. 40. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 98.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 08/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -16.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.93 -7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.7% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 29.2% 63.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 11.9% 3.2% 1.5% 1.2% 8.8% 58.0% 35.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 1.9% 6.4% 49.9% Consensus: 0.2% 15.2% 8.4% 0.6% 0.4% 13.3% 42.5% 28.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 21.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 14.0% 16.0% 63.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 08/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##