* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 76 71 67 58 50 43 37 36 35 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 76 71 67 58 50 43 37 36 35 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 74 69 65 56 48 41 36 33 32 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 4 2 5 6 6 11 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 5 9 12 4 4 0 0 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 117 93 108 116 120 122 102 24 91 145 155 199 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.8 25.2 24.2 23.8 24.4 24.6 25.3 25.6 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 124 120 123 117 106 102 108 110 118 120 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.5 -51.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 39 37 36 35 30 28 24 24 22 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 19 19 16 14 12 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 65 60 55 54 56 49 46 35 39 32 35 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 1 -32 -46 -21 -26 -45 3 7 -8 20 -1 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 0 0 1 3 3 7 8 6 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1434 1511 1596 1693 1790 2015 2161 1843 1516 1202 890 603 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.7 125.9 127.2 128.6 131.4 134.3 137.3 140.4 143.4 146.4 149.2 151.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -15. -21. -22. -23. -23. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -18. -27. -35. -42. -48. -49. -50. -50. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.3 123.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 790.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##