* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 48 50 51 51 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 48 50 51 51 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 2 5 5 8 13 13 13 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 1 3 3 -2 0 -1 -6 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 205 165 161 174 271 319 329 319 318 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 26.9 26.3 26.9 27.4 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 142 141 140 133 128 134 139 143 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 58 60 58 52 52 46 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 12 10 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 15 1 -2 -4 -13 -11 -16 -8 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 1 0 10 28 -4 -2 -14 -5 -18 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1185 1080 983 887 801 705 743 912 1116 1300 1468 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.5 12.0 11.7 11.2 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.7 149.0 150.2 151.5 152.7 155.1 157.6 160.3 163.0 165.4 167.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 8 8 5 6 9 12 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.3 147.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.54 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 18.5% 15.6% 12.9% 8.7% 16.2% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 14.6% 8.2% 3.1% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 11.2% 7.9% 5.3% 3.0% 5.8% 4.4% 0.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##